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Best case scenario of the humanity future and how to enter there.

by Leonid Sakharov

Limits of growth are virtually reached in terms of population expansion. The question what to do with it. Stop migration at first.

History of human civilization, as we witness it, presents a picture of the steady exponential expansion of any its key characteristic on the same paste practically tree hundreds years already. The optimistic point of view that trend can sustain itself indefinite long stands exclusively on the blindness. Nevertheless there are fundamental limits for population growth and energy consuming these is strongly correlated.

One can calculated the level of population earth could feed from reusable sources of energy. The problem is that this point is already significantly overreached by existing number of leaving folks. Cheap energy from oil will became at first expensive then unacceptable precious by draining last reserves. Atomic energy will be only realistic substitution for some time ahead before global warming put limits on its production too.

No matter how, stable situation of energy consumption from reusable source (the only one primary resource of such kind is a solar energy and its derivatives like wind) must be established. Foreseeable technology tendencies give us a general portrait of the structure of minimum necessary energy spending per one person. It has to be transformed dramatically from present configuration. Most part of energy, practically all of it, will go to food production. Why? Mass transit of workers from home to office space and back will not be necessary. Practically all communications will be done via information nets. Industrial production will be mostly automated and plants will not required of human presence.

Social formation of future society has to correspond occupation of its members. The only big and productive part of it will be farmers. Industrial production will demand only few professionals. All others will belong to show business that will include not only pop culture but science also. Not too easy task to image what will cement such society. Religion? Memory of catastrophes on the way to stability? Plan and leadership of secret society of free masons? Who knows. More or less understandable that nature evolution on present society cannot transform economy of unlimited expansion to responsible planet preservative. Painful collapses will do.

Interesting is an allusion between political platforms of republicans and democrats and alternative ways to stable future. Republicans with their idea of owner's society are trying to occupy command position of masters of food production in advance. Democrats plan to establish fair distribution of food and secure respectful position for artists and scientists. In very primitive description it is a choice between feudal slavery and socialists society. Nobody will admit it but nothing else is possible.

What is common for any transformation to stable society is a drastic shrink of human population for very short for historic prospective time. There are only two realistic options of the process - acceptance of new values like only one child per family with substitution of joy establishing a dynasty with a sinful pleasure of deprave; alternative to it is only civil war with rivers of blood unfortunately so.


Initially submitted at Nov. 25, 2004; 15:01

Political division on whose kids future is belonged  is only widening. Part of conservatives who have brain in head became aware that mass immigration brings not only cheap labor but responsibility to support their kids. Pure money-wise saving on salary for illegal low skill migrant will be much less than expenditures on education, healthcare and food stumps. By employer of the person gets saving for themselves taxes to support immigrants are distributed on half of society namely on middle class. It is bad deal for them and Trump represents political movement of healthy part of society.

Dec. 5, 2017; 16:01 EST

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