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History as hard science in the contemporary Sci-Fi.

by Dr. Leonid Sakharov

The review of the idea in Sci-Fi that history can be predicted and manipulated in favor of secret society of unlighted.
What would be, if somebody would invent submarine or fly to the Moon, if we could transfer sound and image to the distance? We, who born less then two centuries ago already know and custom to but writers until last century could only dream abut. Often their predictions materialized almost as a plan. The decent shelf of Jules Verne novels includes at least invention per the novel. Typical story is developed from the Innovation - mad genius builds something very useful to irritate entire world until positive hero stop him appealing to moral basis of the villain. Literature rules demand to leave such weakness even to extraordinary men. Later soviet novelist A. Belyayev worthily continued tradition by "World ruler" and by the "Salesman of air". And then there were thousands more or less popular mention or not by name is the matter of opinion.

A classification of sci-fi on near and far horizon; by grade of global influence of invention and their intact with fundamental scientific principals is so grateful theme that it is explored out so much that no opportunity  for originality left. Mathematical exercises in the social sciences are the point of fascination here. No, not about Marx's "Capital". This "scientific" opus with the elements of arithmetic operations deserves reference only for the demonstration of the fact that even erratic theory being injected into political lexicon of the crowd, can be almost omnipotent. However, what would be, if it would be possible to create the working theory of society?

Before we will concentrated mostly on the novel In the Country of the Blind by Michael Flynn it is necessary for the sake of fairness to have a talk about the galactic saga Foundation by by Isaac Asimov. About dozen novels narrate about the fate of galactic empire, which arose after the outcome of humanity from the Earth. Beginning peak of power it began to fall into the decline and the passage hero of saga, psycho craft robot, inspired mathematician to create psycho-history, science discipline about the human society in the partial differential equations. The goal was to decrease the transit time from barbarism to the new Golden Age. Practically the matter was realized by founding of the distant planet the society of scientists to write comprehensive Encyclopedia preserving knowledge about atomic energy and must according to the calculations will become the center for crystallization of new Empire. The camera of time was built on this planet and with the periodicity into the generations in it appears the hologram of Garry Seldon, founder of psycho-history, and did error-free predictions, what to happen in relatively near further using  mixed style of Nostradamus prophesies and State of the Nation address.

If we attentively read carefully ourselves into this saga, then it is possible to find all basic ideas of the working theory of society. We will find there a postulates of working theory of society:

Let imaging that you will try to insert these concepts into political discussions as the answer most possible will be "it is fantasy, stupid". It is. In the country of the blind the one-eyed man is king. This saying in its literal sense was already disproved by H. G. Wells in his "The Country of the Blind". The organized village of blind from birth men managed overcome stranger with 20/20 vision. However, what will be with the society of mathematicians, who used since nineteenth century the methodology of natural sciences for studying society? Noble Thomas Robert Malthus, who did not criticize you... But here Flynn even did not mention you in his book.

Founders of such social mathematical societies were members of mathematical society devoted to study Babbage's Difference and Analytical Engines in America and analogous group fancy about ideas of "social physics" of Quetelet in Europe. Retell or not retell detective aspect of the novel that is a question. An account of events there appears artificially constructed to sugarcoat global conspiracies devoted mathematicians. Nevertheless for there are all components of action spy story for those who in love from zero via none to seven. Public corporation supplies statistical data has secret department keeping meaningful facts for powerful society. Occasional break into private wardrobe full of skeletons stops with bullet or explosive. In long tradition of sci-fi the scientific basic of the story presents with long dialogs and lectures. Not dull by the way. The heroes, black nice clever young attractive real estate woman plus computer programmer and hacker in the same pretty face and CIA agent from left wing of conspirators with conscience. They constitute nice couple with final romance or something like.

Villains are colorful as well. Actions sometimes on the brink of pathology. What about sadistic head of right wing sexually advancing her prey before liquidation. Positions inverts later instead male tool he found steel for her. Whatever. Read for yourself. I had fun. But here we are talking about real subject of the book about Cliology, hard science, named after Clio muse of history in contrast to History itself, which appears to be no more than to one of the aliases of propaganda.

Thus returns us to the initial question, what could be implications if one-and-a-half centuries ago group of peoples invented and developed Cliology, science, capable to reliably predict trend of social development. Wealth of those in possession knowledge when to buy low would be the first obvious consequence. Thus is simple due to the successful capital investments. And wealth is the synonym of power.

Second condition will be strict secrecy. The conclusion that is not so obvious. Hypothetically it is possible to dream about the planned socialist economy, which optimally maximizes the summary happiness of every one citizen. It is in no way obvious that such society is impossible in principle. In the real world, which is oriented toward the individual success, to share business data is the paraphrase of stupidity. Another consideration in favor of secrecy - relative simplicity of the predictions of the reactions of uninformed crowd in comparison with attempt to manipulate the meeting of the academy of sciences. The lesser freedom of; choices for your rival the easier to construct a trap to catch him in two move checkmate combination. In referred book one of the secret societies propagate deception of population, injecting no classical education paradigm "useful in the real life", for simplification in the computational formulas. Everybody should know his place. Why, why? To simplify predictive model. Laziness by them.

The third. Spread of purposes and methods of the secret societies. Up to now there should be more than one of them according postulate made in book that as the consequence of the erosion of purposes for three generations of members. So that every seventy years the number of secret players doubles by separation rebellious grandsons from old men. Altruistic superego of creative personalities is not transferred determined by the inheritance. Other source of such secret societies is tendency to be done in several regions independently and simultaneously. One or two in America and in Europe each. Some of them did not survive as, for example, on the version "In the country of blind" Vienna's with the predominately Jewish members was attacked by Rohm Sturmabteilung (here it true base for the charges in the world plot), but all of them was liquidated by Himmler order for retaining the secret. The book is especially rich for such "historical discoveries" these are let's say direct are conspiracy theories.

The only method of the substantiation his hypotheses Michael Flynn offers an observation of extremely improbable events at the key points of history with extreme breaking of well established trend. There are so named 'horseshoes nails". Nail fell out, horseshoe was lost, horse limped, messenger did not have time, general lost battle, crown was rolled away. Here are several cases of the collection of such "nails" contained in the book:

It is possible to ironically name all these hints on existence of backstage hand  as a "conspiracy theory" that is ridiculous paranoid assumption on the basis of delusion of persecution and the overstated self-appraisal, that there are the plots. They occur sometime. But authorities reveal them and report entire truth to public. Well, not in complete entirety, but only that part of them, which it is possible to successfully declassify without helping to terrorists to succeeded in next plot. Plots are usually revealed only after their realization, but this is the clean chance of the best motives of the permanent pour professionalism of law-enforcement agencies. They must be strengthened more and ever forever.

Let's return to the fantasies. What about purposes and the methods such secret societies. In the book Flynn made no doubt about his political preferential. He is for freedom of personality to select its fate, against secret of the hereditary elite of puppet masters, which degenerates in the generations into the pitiless band of bloody maniacs, who dreams about the society of dull labor. Special place in the heart of Flynn is diverted to innovation in the education Thomas Dewey and Taylor who propagate a system the hierarchical of management of whom author directly associates with totalitarian communism.

For Flynn any totalitarianism, what government what corporate is disgusting. The same shame is for secret society, which injects thus vision of future. It is necessary to give credit of the caution Flynn, who never mentioned conservatives from the Republican Party directly. Serious charges must be proven by facts even if they are done in the address of people without such strict legalistic principles.

There is also a good society of observers and researchers in book, they also are ready to act, but moral principals do not make it possible to accomplish murder for them. As the whole, they are white and furry liberals. So so are from Boston investment firm. It prospers in gentlemen style. They are not capable even for torture. Quiet Americans. Most disgusting are this French speaking Europeans. These use hypnosis for creating the killers -zombie and they exploded entire historical department in university just for invitation of mathematician to make report of his findings. No need in apartment number for assigning with extra devotion for quality job - just street address is more the enough if no shortage in explosives. Just a joke. Sorry.

All at all the book is full of expected liberal political correctness not worth should be mentioned but it gave entry point to talk about methods practicing by secret societies according the book. If we reject such extreme actions as mass terror and political murders, assigned to the groups of fanatics but actually directed by likable and fine looking moral freaks as methods manipulation of political trend, we can safely suggest that such methods are not effective on the long perspective. Then we have propaganda. If inject public consciousness for several generations as self-evident truths certain primary ideas, which in the book called "memes" like an American dream, importance of Faith, trust to authorities, then the conscious behavior of people will change in the necessary direction. And the majority of such ideas is this not the result of our own experience, they rather contradict to events of our real life, they are imprinted to us from without. Being transferred as viruses in the contact and directly infecting us through the media, primary ideas of right and wrong become the miracle of categorical imperative.

And here here one should stop and look around. Ya-a-a, and what about political parties? What differentiate them from the secret historical societies? Analogy with the history of Communist motion is astonishing clear. Communists even proclaims to be in possession of the scientific knowledge of society development. They operated in pitch-black secrecy. Of course they acted legally... Come on who now believes in it. It occurs that there is no real difference. They proclaimed that Program of Party made on the base scientific methods to benefit whole society. What is the Society? Can you be more specific, if could, please? Who defined good for everybody? A... You... Well, of course You, who else can...

Is it possible then to combine a concept of individual Free Will with the predictability of history? Yes, but laws of society must be well-known and each of us sapience's will be able to correct future into his own benefit by acting coordinately with open eyes. If knowledge about the laws of social development would be scientific, then first discovered them could have only initial advantage of early start but later on natural impulses of nonconforming individualists nevertheless will mix all plans of the conspirators, who moreover will be absorbed by mutual fight for the embodiment of mutual exclusive plans rivals inside their organizations.

To this conclusion at the end of the book comes the main heroine of tale. It is necessary fight for himself, as struggled for survival our ancestors from days beyond recall, but only at the higher level of understanding consequences.

"Let us endeavor, then, to think well; this is the principle of morality." said B. Pascal outlining the last line of resistance to the explicit and secret tyrants of all times stepping of it man is converted into the cattle.


Mar. 9, 2007; 9:01 EST

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